A Short Crop Tightens the Wheat Market
Washington's harvest comes in at less than half of last year's, and the revised estimate sends prices climbing across the region.
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Now that the wheat crop of the state has been practically all harvested and is under cover, wheat handlers and those in a position to know are estimating that the entire yield of the state is less than half of the yield of 1902. The estimates given out by the state grain commission before the late rains, it is said, are altogether too high, and amended estimates place the yield at 12,000,000 bushels, instead of 19,000,000 bushels as first estimated.
The revision of estimates is having the effect of stiffening prices in all the wheat centers, and present prices, it is asserted, will soon reach a much higher level when it has been actually demonstrated that the yield is much lower than was first supposed.
Chief Deputy Inspector King was seen as regards the probable come-down from first estimates. He said: "Our estimates were made with the reservation that the crop would probably reach 19,000,000 bushels, providing there were no losses after that date. There have been losses, and though the damage to the crop by rain would not decrease the amount of grain in bushels, it has evidently had its influence in some sections in causing an abandonment of all thoughts of harvesting extremely poor stands of wheat. From reports being received at this office, it is safe to revise the former figures several million bushels. Many of the large warehouses over the mountains report that where at this time of the year in past seasons they have been full to overflowing, this year they are comparatively empty."
A prominent wheat buyer seen as to the new estimates added: "I think 12,000,000 bushels as against 26,000,000 last year is possibly a low estimate, and for myself think the crop will come between 12,000,000 and 15,000,000 bushels. One of the largest of the Tacoma mills, which in previous years at this time has always been stocked up in its east-of-the-mountain warehouses, with usually three-quarters of a million bushels to sell, this year has not more than half enough wheat to date to keep running for the balance of the season."
“I think 12,000,000 bushels as against 26,000,000 last year is possibly a low estimate...”
A bad harvest and a revised forecast once moved prices across Washington's wheat country; today, drought and climate volatility still make farm economies swing on a single season's number. The argument over whether official estimates are too high or too low is an old one—and still shapes who gets paid, and when.
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