The Global Wheat Gamble
A look at the 1889 wheat market reveals how Seattle growers were betting on distant Australian droughts and European shortages to secure profits.
The story, cleaned up
A cleaned-up reading of the newspaper page: spelling and layout repaired, one story lifted off a crowded page. It follows the original closely but it is not a transcription. The original page is below; read it if a detail matters.
The latest reports from Australia will prove interesting to the wheat growers of Washington Territory, as well as to those who deal in that cereal and have bought in the hope of finding a strong foreign market. The yield for the season in New South Wales was about 1,510,000 bushels, while the consumption and seed requirements are together placed at 8,200,000 bushels, leaving a deficiency of 6,690,000 bushels. In Queensland, the production of wheat amounted to only 100,000 bushels, thus leaving the entire supply for seed and consumption to be imported—a shortage of 2,100,000 bushels. Tasmania will require 160,000 bushels, making the deficiencies of these three colonies total 8,950,000 bushels. With crops in France, Germany, and the low countries being partial failures, and Russia’s yield far below the average, the amount to be drawn from India will be unusually large. But as India is from thirty to forty days from England, as against eight or ten days from the United States, it would appear that the latter country has some advantage. With our wheat crop last year below the average, and a decreased acreage in England and shorter supply on the Continent and in Australia, there is a probability of American wheat fetching a good figure abroad. It would appear there is a golden opportunity for Pacific Coast wheat to be sold at a profitable figure.
“It would appear that the supply will hardly equal the demand, and that further supplies must be looked for in other countries.”
In 1889, Pacific Northwest farmers were deeply reliant on the volatility of global commodity markets, much like modern Washington wheat exporters remain tethered to international trade tensions and shipping logistics. The local excitement over high prices in Melbourne mirrors today's concerns over global supply chain disruptions impacting Washington's agricultural exports.
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